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The final crime statistics for the first six months of 2009 in the City of Miami have just been sent to the FBI. This year overall crime is down 15 percent, with violent crime down 16 percent and property crime down 14 percent. These numbers fly in the face of conventional wisdom, which maintains that in an economy such as the one we are currently facing, with double-digit unemployment, crime should increase. The fact is there is no direct correlation between the economy and crime; look no further than the Great Depression when crime rates were not affected by more than 20 percent unemployment.
If the economy affected crime as claimed, we would be arresting persons for the first or second time. Unfortunately, those we arrest continue to be the same "frequent flyers'" with significant criminal histories. For Miami, the decline in crime continues a trend that began more than two decades ago and continued through the eight years of Mayor Manny Diaz's administration.
What is amazing is that there are still some in South Florida and across the nation who believe that Miami has a significant crime problem. Nothing could be further from the truth. I have seen this phenomenon in other cities. I call it "Timoney's Rule No. 1 on Crime": perception lags reality, and reality lags perception. Translation: If a city has a significant crime problem, it will also have a crime perception problem, even when the crime figures begin to show improvement.
Similarly, a city that does not have a crime problem but experiences a crime increase will continue to be perceived as safe for some period of time. Perception and reality are often shaped by media coverage, or sometimes lack of coverage, of crime trends. In addition, sensational crimes will always have a disproportionate impact on perception. The deadliest year in the city's history was 1980 when 220 murders were recorded in a city of 335,000 residents.
Last year 63 people were killed, a reduction of more than 70 percent. Other crimes have dropped dramatically as well including sexual battery, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, auto theft and arson. The mayor, City Manager Pete Hernandez and the City Commission can feel proud of their decision to invest taxpayers dollars in the Miami Police Department over the past several years.
The men and women of the MPD have responded admirably to the new leadership and have worked hard to protect the residents of this great city.
John Timoney is the chief of the Miami Police Department. This article appeared in the September 4 edition of The Miami Herald Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites        
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